Economic crisis: Cosmos and people
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This logic psychopathic behavior was popular among hysterical people. If they gave more money after September 1929, they would have immediately allowed the stock market speculation. Giving more money at the moment is not just the continuation of madness. Just as in the 2009 crisis. If there was no money for playing or if they would be reduced, than it would be followed by the blues, anxiety and depression, as it had been observed in the United States. The immediate cause of the economic downturn just stands the unusual change of mentality and the motivation of market participants with the behavior of people in awe. Behavior was exactly the same as hysteroid accentuations have after a violent agitation.
Taking oath on the 4th of March, 1933, Roosevelt said, "… the only thing to fear is fear itself, irrational, faceless, unjustified terror which paralyzes the efforts required to convert retreat in the offensive." And there was a joke about Roosevelt in those days, that his analyst was God himself.
We must note that the fear and panic coexisted with high spirits and confidence that everything will be great after a while. That is how people in that period of uncertainty and stress added more hormones that caused optimism, while others increased the amount of hormones that caused fear. Let us confirm this fact by the quotes of experts and market participants.
"It is time to buy stocks. Now anyone in America who stands for decrease will lose their money. Perhaps in a few days the bear panic will take place rather than a bull panic. Likely, there will be no such low prices for many of those shares that are being sold so hysterically" (JP. Morgan, "New York Herald Tribune", October 30, 1929). "You should buy a reliable, proven promotion and you will not regret it" (Bulletin analyst E. A Pierce, "New York Herald Tribune", October 30, 1929). "There are intelligent people who are now buying stocks … Unless there is a panic, and no one seriously believes in it, stocks will not fall down" (Financial Analyst R. McNeil, October 1929).
Optimism and pessimism as well as fear and bravado coexisted in different people and even in each person they interchanged depending on the situation. The behavior of people became emotional, irrational. And at the same time it was different. But gradually pessimism won. If we burn most of the hormones, the body starts to save them, forcing people to reduce activity. The mental state also changes.
Of course, the victory of pessimism resulted in increased number of market participants. With the growing number of participants in the determination of behavior, he psychology of crowds starts dominating, increasing the role of suggestion and unconscious components of the collective psyche. Mood hesitations during this period often lead to madness even those people who are most prone to mental disorders.
But if the voice of reason could be deafened, then the feast during the plague could continue. And what could deafen the reasonable view of the state of the market? When there is a lot of serotonin and adrenaline in blood, the reasonable view is unlikely. When hormones are missing, the blues will come itself. When hormones are normal, just thinking often helps, although sometimes psychotherapist is useful.
We have to remind that in 1921 Saturn and Jupiter were in conjunction. It was the intense activity that American literature called the "Roaring Twenties." Emotionally eclipsed mind started to dominate, although there were almost no sunspots (Wolf number in 1921 was 26, in 1922 – 14, 1923 – 6). Young and old played on stock exchanges. Of the 120 million Americans 30 million played on the stock exchanges and a half million had accounts in brokerage companies. As it often happens while playing or gambling, the most part of what you have is to be lost, and therefore money was borrowed. Newspapers wrote about winning in the system of interpersonal relations and they were talking about them more often as well. The hormones were demanded. But those who were forced to drown fear turned to be psychopaths – it was the included psychological mechanism of repression. So, human psyche was often in such situations. People just did not see and did not want to see the reality. They were waiting for money, big money.
It was during those years when the excessive optimism that led to that desire to get rich most evolved in the confidence that it could be easily done with the help of speculation. Under this need the update of the current financial and organizational structure was required. But then the solar activity started growing. In 1927 Wolf number equaled 69, in 1928 – 78, and in December 1929 it reached 108. Physiology of people had become different, and the habit of playing at the market remained.
Crash unfolded in strict accordance with the increase in solar activity and behavior patterns of hysteroid accentuations.
In June 1929 solar activity began to decline: Wolf number in June was 72, in July – 70, in August – 66, in September – 34, so the solar activity fell twice. Market participants cheered. Optimism began to grow. But the subsequent increase in solar activity again brought confusion in the head: October – 54, November – 81, December – 108. Besides, the planets were in such position that rocked people's minds both in the direction of positive and negative emotions. Historical optimism and cosmic events in 1921 began to pass. Jupiter and Saturn began to approach their opposition and in unison that great movement of exchange began to change the focus of its trends. But any analyst must take into consideration the influence of gravitational forces, and the influence of the electromagnetic activity of the Sun. These values are not linked by a linear dependence. But they resonate with each other cyclically over 144 years. These are cyclical resonances. These factors were unfavorable in 1929 for market growth. They made other people qualitatively different.
Could the trend in the stock market change, if the FRS began to pump money into the economy in September 1929? Could that pumping alter the greatest hormonal change, which occurs with the powerful gravitational resonances in space? Perhaps it was possible, but only for a short time, when psychotherapy would cancel cyclic order given by Cosmos. Anyway, in the twentieth century (and other period for analysis no one), only the Second World War interrupted the economic cycles, but not so hard and not for a long period.
1.4. Crisis 2009
Famous economist Andrei Illarionov called the date of May 19, 2008 the beginning of the Russian crisis "What is crisis? ". Article in "The New Times", № 40[86] as of October 6, 2008. Actually that was the date when the Russian stock indexes stopped growing and began their downfall. The date is not random. That day the Earth was aligned not just between Jupiter and Saturn, but also between the Sun and the Moon. It was a kind of "gravitational stretching", which led to a serious reduction of its own gravity. This is an important day for the development of the world's stock markets.
What you should we note at first? When the Earth is between Jupiter and Saturn, the stock markets often fall. But it happened so that from March to June 2008 and from March to August 2009 the Earth was almost continuously between these planets. In addition it happened in March, September and December 2010 and also in March and November 2011. In August and December 2008, in January 2010 the planets of the solar system set for "bowl."
But the FRS was not napping; it turned to be the greatest specialist in the history being a psychiatrist and a hypnotist. Psychiatrist and hypnotizers convince with voice, simple arguments, hand movements, eyes … These are known techniques. FRS arguments urged different facts, such as scientific knowledge of the history of financial crises of previous years, monographs and columns of numbers. Instead of hand movements they used movements of funds in such a scale that had not been known in history yet. How could people stand from believing? Especially because they all wanted to believe that everything would be alright. “I’m happy to delude myself”. Even the FRS’s meeting on the 16th of March, the first time in 30 years on Sunday, had a psychotherapeutic effect. From March 16 to April 30 the FRS lowered rates provided by banks for funding several times. Just to reassure the markets and the people.