Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости
Шрифт:
Press.f я
O'Connor,M.,andM.Lawrence,1989,"AnExaminationoftheAccuracy ofJudgmentConfidenceIntervalsinTimeSeriesForecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 8:141-155.
O'Neill,BrianС.andMausamiDesai,2005,"AccuracyofPastProjections
ofU.S.EnergyConsumption."Energy Policy 33:979-993. OberauerК.,O.Wilhelm,andR.R.Diaz,1999,"BayesianRationalityfor
theWasonSelectionTask?ATestofOptimalDataSelectionTheory."
Thinking and Reasoning 5(2):115-144. Odean,Terrance,1998a,"AreInvestorsReluctanttoRealizeTheir
Losses?"Journal of Finance 53(5):1775-1798.
,1998b."Volume,Volatility,PriceandProfitWhenAllTraders
AreAboveAverage."Journal of Finance 53(6):1887-1934. Officer,R.R.,1972,"TheDistributionofStockReturns."Journal of the
American Statistical Association 340(67):807-812. Olsson,ErikJ.,2006,Knowledge and Inquiry: Essays on the Pragmatism
of Isaac Levi. CambridgeStudiesinProbability,InductionandDecision
TheorySeries.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. Onkal,D.,J.F.Yates,C.Simga-Mugan,andS.Oztin,2003,"Professional
andAmateurJudgmentAccuracy:TheCaseofForeignExchange
Rates."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 91:
169-185.
Ormerod,Paul,2005,Why Most Things Fail NewYork:Pantheon Books.
,2006,"Hayek,'TheIntellectualsandSocialism/andWeighted
Scale-freeNetworks."Economic Affairs 26:1-41. Oskamp,Stuart,1965,"OverconfidenceinCase-StudyJudgments."
Journal of Consulting Psychology 29(3):261-265.
Paese,P.W.andJ.A.Sniezek,1991,"InfluencesontheAppropriateness ofConfidenceinJudgment:Practice,Effort,Information,and DecisionMaking."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 48:100-130.
Page,Scott,2007,The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Can Create Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton,N.J.:Princeton UniversityPress.
Pais,Abraham,1982,Subtle Is the Lord. NewYork:OxfordUniversity Press.
Pareto,Vilfredo,1896,Cours d'economie politique. Geneva:Droz. Park,David,2005,The Grand Contraption: The World as Myth, Number, and Chance. Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress.
Paulos, John Allen, 1988,Innumeracy. New York: Hill &C Wang.
,2003,A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market. Boston: Basic
Books.
Pearl, J., 2000,Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. New York:
Cambridge University Press. Peirce, Charles Sanders, 1923,1998,Chance, Love and Logic: Philosophical
Essays. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.
,1955,Philosophical Writings of Peirce, edited by J. Buchler. New
York: Dover.
Penrose, Roger, 1989,The Emperor's New Mind. New York: Penguin. PeREZ, C. J., A. Corral, A. Diaz-Guilera, K. Christensen, and A. Arenas,
1996,"On Self-organized Criticality and Synchronization in Lattice
Models of Coupled Dynamical Systems." International Journal of
Modern Physics
galeniana della medicina empirica. Munich, Leipzig: K. G. Saur. Perline, R., 2005,"Strong, Weak, and False Inverse Power Laws."
Statistical Science 20(1):68-88. Pfeifer, P. E., 1994,"Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability
Forecasters Are Overconfident?" Organizational Behavior and Human
Decision Processes 58(2):203-213. Phelan, James, 2005,"Who's Here? Thoughts on Narrative Identity and
Narrative Imperialism." Narrative 13:205-211. Piattelli-Palmarini, Massimo, 1994,Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes
of Reason Rule Our Minds. New York: Wiley. Pieters, Rik, and Hans Baumgartner, 2002,"Who Talks to Whom?
Intra- and Interdisciplinary Communication of Economics Journals."
Journal of Economic Literature 40(2):483-509. Pinker, Steven, 1997,How the Mind Works. New York: W. W. Norton and
Company.
,2002,The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature.
New York: Viking.
Pisarenko, V, and D. Sornette, 2004,"On Statistical Methods of Parameter Estimation for Deterministically Chaotic Time-Series." Physical Review E 69:036122.
Plotkin, Henry, 1998,Evolution in Mind: An Introduction to Evolutionary Psychology. London: Penguin.
Plous,s.,1993.The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. new
york:mcgraw-hill.
>1995,"acomparisonofstrategiesforreducinginterval
overconfidenceingroupjudgments."Journal of Applied Psychology 80:443-454-
Polanyi,michael,1958/1974,Personal Knowledge: Towards a Post-Critical Philosophy chicago:theuniversityofchicagopress.
Popkin,richardh.,1951,"davidhume:hispyrrhonismandhiscritique ofpyrrhonism."The Philosophical Quarterly 1(5):385-407.
,1955,"theskepticalprecursorsofdavidhume."Philosophy and
Phenomenological Research 16(1):61-71.
,2003,The History of Scepticism: From Savonarola to Bayle. ox-
ford:oxforduniversitypress.
Popper,karlr.,1971,The Open Society and Its Enemies, 5thed.princeton, n.j.:princetonuniversitypress.
,1992,Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific
Knowledge, 5thed.london:routledge.
,1994,The Myth of the Framework. london:routledge.
,2002a,The Logic of Scientific Discovery, 15thed.london:
routledge.
,2002b,The Poverty ofHistoricism. london:routledge.
Posner,richarda.,2004,Catastrophe: Risk and Response. oxford: