Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости
Шрифт:
Forgets and Remembers. Boston:HoughtonMifflin. Schelling,Thomas,1971,"DynamicModelsofSegregation."Journal of
Mathematical Sociology 1:143-186.
,1978,Micromotives and Macrobehavior. NewYork:W.W.Norton
andCompany.
Scheps,Ruth,ed.,1996,Les sciences de la prevision. Paris:EditionsduSeuil. Schroeder,Manfred,1991,Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws: Minutes from
an Infinite Paradise. NewYork:W.H.FreemanandCompany. Schumpeter,Joseph,1942,Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New
York:Harper.
Seglen,P.O.,1992,"TheSkewnessofScience."Journal of the American
Society for Information Science 43:628-638. SextusEmpiricus,2000,Outline of Scepticism, editedbyJuliaAnnas
andJonathanBarnes.NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress.
,2005,Against the Logicians, translatedandeditedbyRichard
Bett.NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress. Shackle,G.L.S.,1961,Decision Order and Time in Human Affairs.
Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.
,1973,Epistemics and Economics: A Critique of Economic Doctrines.
Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.
Shanteau,J., 1992,"Competence in Experts: The Role of Task
Characteristics." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision
Processes 53:252-266. Sharpe,William R, 1994,"The Sharpe Ratio." Journal of Portfolio
Management 21(1):49-58.
,1996,"Mutual Fund Performance." Journal of Business 39:119-138.
Shiller,Robert J., 1981,"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified
by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?" American Economic Review
71(3):421-436.
,1989,Market Volatility. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. —
,1990,"Market Volatility and Investor Behavior." American
Economic Review 80(2):58-62.
>1995,"Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior." American
Economic Review 85(2):181-185.J-
,2000,Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton
University Press.
,2003,The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21stCentury.
Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Shizgal,Peter, 1999,"On the Neural Computation of Utility: Implications
from Studies of Brain Simulation Rewards." In D. Kahneman,
E. Diener, and N. Schwarz, eds., 1999. Sieff,E. M., R. M. Dawes, and G. Loewenstein, 1999,"Anticipated Versus
Actual Reaction to HIV Test Results." American Journal of Psychology
122:297-311.
Silverberg,Gerald, and Bart Verspagen, 2004,"The Size Distribution of Innovations Revisited: An Application of Extreme Value Statistics to Citation and Value Measures of Patent Significance,"ub.unimaas.nl/loader/file.asp?id=93i.
,2005,"Self-organization of R&D Search in Complex Technology
Spaces",fulltext.pdf.
Simon,Herbert A., 1955,"On a Class of Skew Distribution Functions."
Biometrika 42:425-440.
,1987,"Behavioral Economics." In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and
P. Newman, eds., 1987. Simonton,Dean Keith, 1999,Origins of Genius: Darwinian Perspectives
on Creativity. New York: Oxford University Press.
,2004,Creativity. NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress.
Sloman,S.A.,1993,"FeatureBasedInduction."Cognitive Psychology 25:231-280.
,1994,"WhenExplanationsCompete:TheRoleofExplanatory
CoherenceonJudgmentsofLikelihood."Cognition 52:1-21.
,1996,"TheEmpiricalCaseforTwoSystemsofReasoning."Psy-
chological Bulletin 119:3-22.
,1998,"CategoricalInferenceIsNotaTree:TheMythof
InheritanceHierarchies."Cognitive Psychology 35:1-33.
,2002,"TwoSystemsofReasoning."InT.Gilovich,D.Griffin,
andD.Kahneman,eds.,2002.
Sloman,S.А.,В.C.Love,andW.Ann,1998,"FeatureCentralityand
!чConceptualCoherence."Cognitive Science 22:189-228.
Sloman,S.A.,andВ.C.Malt,2003,"ArtifactsAreNotAscribedEssences, NorAreTheyTreatedasBelongingtoKinds."Language and Cognitive Processes 18:563-582.
Sloman,S.A.,andD.Over,2003,"ProbabilityJudgmentfromtheInside andOut."InD.Over,ed.,Evolution and the Psychology of Thinking: ~ The Debate. NewYork:PsychologyPress.
Sloman,S.A.,andL.J.Rips,1998,"SimilarityasanExplanatory Construct."Cognition 65:87-101.
Slovic,Paul,M.Finucane,E.Peters,andD.G.MacGregor,2003a, "RationalActorsorRationalFools?ImplicationsoftheAffectHeuristic
:forBehavioralEconomics."WorkingPaper,www.decisionresearch.
им com.
– ,2003b,"RiskasAnalysis,RiskasFeelings:SomeThoughts
AboutAffect,Reason,Risk,andRationality."Paperpresentedatthe
AnnualMeetingoftheSocietyforRiskAnalysis,NewOrleans,La.,
December10,2002.
Slovic,P.,M.Finucane,E.Peters,andD.G.MacGregor,2002,"The AffectHeuristic."InT.Gilovich,D.Griffin,andD.Kahneman,eds., 2002.
Slovic,P.,B.Fischhoff,andS.Lichtenstein,1976,"CognitiveProcesses andSocietalRiskTaking."InJohnS.CarrollandJohnW.Payne,eds., Cognition and Social Behavior. Hillsdale,N.J.:LawrenceErlbaum.
у1977,"BehavioralDecisionTheory."Annual Review of Psychology
28:1-39.
Slovic,Р.,В.Fischhoff,S.Lichtenstein,B.Corrigan,andB.Combs,1977, "PreferenceforInsuringAgainstProbableSmallLosses:Implications fortheTheoryandPracticeofInsurance."Journal of Risk and Insurance 44:237-258.ReprintedinP.Slovic,ed.,The Perception of Risk. London:Earthscan.