Злой рок. Политика катастроф
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Я благодарен Эдварду Лэзиру за разъяснение этой проблемы. Если вам интересен альтернативный взгляд, согласно которому «с экономической точки зрения наш отклик соответствовал угрозе, исходящей от вируса», см.: Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live (New York: Little, Brown Spark, 2020), pp. 304f.
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Christos A. Makridis and Jonathan Hartley, «The Cost of COVID-19: A Rough Estimate of the 2020 U. S. GDP Impact», Mercatus Center Special Edition Policy Brief, March 23, 2020, доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559139.
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Jay Boice,
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Roman Marchant et al., «Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions», May 26, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734. For a critique of the models, see Andrea Saltelli et al., «Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto», Nature 582 (June 24, 2020), pp. 482–484, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-018129.
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Eskild Petersen et al., «Comparing SARS-CoV2 with SARS-CoV and Influenza Pandemics», Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 9 (September 2020), pp. E238 – E244, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473–3099 (20) 304849.
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«EuroMOMO Bulletin», European Mortality Monitoring Project, http://www.euromomo.eu/; «Weekly Death Statistics: Dramatic Rise in Deaths in Early Spring», Eurostat, July 21, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Weekly_death_statistics &stable#Dramatic_rise_in_deaths_in_early_spring.
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«Tracking COVID-19 Excess Deaths Across Countries», Economist, July 15, 2020, https://www.econo mist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid19excess-deaths-across-countries; Jin Wu et al., «Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak», New York Times, July 31, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html; «Coronavirus Tracked: The Latest Figures as Countries Fight COVID-19 Resurgence», Financial Times, August 18, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441.
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Об очень спорном вопросе приписывания смертей COVID-19 и иным причинам избыточной смертности, см.: John Lee, «The Way ‘COVID Deaths’ Are Being Counted Is a National Scandal», Spectator, May 30, 2020, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-countedisanational-scandal; David Spiegelhalter,
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Sarah Caul et al., «Deaths Registered Weekly in England and Wales, Provisional: Week Ending 27 March 2020», UK Office for National Statistics, April 7, 2020, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020#deaths-registeredbyweek.
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Chris Giles, «UK Coronavirus Deaths More than Double Official Figure, According to FT Study», Financial Times, April 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05–43bc-ba03– e239799fa6ab.
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«COVID-19 Daily Deaths», NHS England, https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid19daily-deaths/.
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Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall): «Глядя на данные @ONS о смертях в Европе, становится совершенно понятно, насколько плохи дела в Англии», Twitter, July 30, 2020, 11:15 a.m., https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1288886067039535104.
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John Burn-Murdoch and Chris Giles, «UK Suffers Second-Highest Death Rate from Coronavirus», Financial Times, May 28, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4–9a82-648ffde71bf0.
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Harry Kennard (@HarryKennard), «ONS have updated their weekly mortality figures up to April 10th for England and Wales», Twitter, April 21, 2020, 2:59 a.m., https://twitter.com/HarryKennard/status/1252522319903436800.
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«Coronavirus Tracked», Financial Times.
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Burn-Murdoch and Giles, «UK Suffers Second-Highest Death Rate».