Актуальные проблемы Европы №2 / 2014
Шрифт:
b n.s. = not significant in initial run; variable was dropped and analysis re-run.
The strong effects of country wealth on Rule of Law scores are clear in all three models. Because wealthy countries tend to have political parties and also tend not be on the Mediterranean, the wealth effect diminished slightly as the party system variable was added in Model 2 and the Mediterranean variable was added in Model 3. Both models adjusted for the effects of the new variables, which had been masked by country wealth.
Figure 4 graphs the results of the regression equation for Model 3, plotting each country’s predicted Rule of Law scores – based on country wealth, absence of parties, and location on the Mediterranean Sea – against its actual scores for 2011. A few of the 41 countries are identified by name to illustrate the analysis. Compare Figure 4 with Figure 3, which plotted Rule of Law scores by location and EU status. Sweden, Finland, Montenegro, and Lebanon all rated higher on Rule of Law than predicted by the regression line, while Luxembourg, Italy, and Libya all rated below. Inevitable measurement error accounts for some of the deviations from the prediction line, while country specific factors presumably account for the remainder.
Figure 4. Predicted effects of wealth, parties, and location on Rule of Law
Discussions of Mediterranean politics often resort to stereotypes recalling Montesquieu’s belief that
In truth, politics in European countries bordering the Mediterranean have been demonstrably more volatile than politics in their northern neighbors. According to the 2007 WGI measure, «Political Stability and Absence of Violence» (described above and scored two years before the Eurozone crisis), the 19 EU members not bordering the Mediterranean Sea scored significantly higher on political stability than the 9 members on the sea (0.87 vs 0.62) 13 .
One need not succumb to stereotypes, however, to conclude that countries bordering on the Mediterranean Sea tended to rate significantly lower on Rule of Law in 2011, even after controlling for country wealth and the absence of party politics. The difference is a genuine source of concern for the EU’s «European Neighborhood Policy». Why this difference exists requires more sophisticated analysis than attributing it to climate.
13
The difference was significant at the. 05 level using a one-tailed test.
1. A-Z index // European Union site. – Mode of access: http://europa.eu/geninfo/atoz/en/index_1_en.htm
2. Bodenstein T., Furness M. The edges of external governance: Europe and its Mediterranean neighbours. – Berlin: Freie Univ., 2006. – 31 December. – 29 p. – (GO-EuroMed working paper; N 0614). – Mode of access:WP_0614_Germany_Negotiations.pdf
3. Building on long-standing ties, EU and Israel explore new opportunities for growth and innovation / European Commission. – Brussels, 2013. – 21 October. – 3 p. – Mode of access: http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/israel/documents/news/20132110_israel_final_memo_en.pdf
4. Byrne I. The importance of economic, social and cultural rights in guaranteeing civil and political rights within the Euro-Mediterranean partnership // Mediterranean Politics. – L.: Routledge, 2004. – Vol. 9. – P. 344–367.
5. European debt crisis fast facts // CNN Library. – 14 September 2013. – Mode of access: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/27/world/europe/european-debt-crisis-fast-facts
6. Furness M., G'andara P., Kern A. The political economy of Euro-Mediterranean governance: Report for GO-EuroMed Brussels Conference 27–28 November 2008. – Brussels: GO-EuroMed, 2008. – 70 p.
7. Ilyin M. Governance: What is behind the word? // Participation. – Quebec: IPSA, 2013. – Vol. 37, N 1. – P. 3–4
8. Integrating human rights with sustainable human development: A UNDP policy document. – N.Y.: UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), 1998. – 32 p.
9. Janda K., Kwak J.-Y. Party Systems and Country Governance. – Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publisher, 2011. – 256 p.
10. Kaufmann D., Kraay A., Mastruzzi M. The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. – Washington, DC: The World Bank, Development Research Group, Macroeconomics and Growth Team, 2010. – 30 p. – (Policy research working paper; N 5430). – Mode of access: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1682130
11. Melvin D. Increasing stereotypes threaten European unity // New England Cable News. – 8 August 2012. – Mode of access:&apID=4496f1676831406f8106cc8cef084758
12. Member states of the EU // EU: Countries. – Mode of access: http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/index_en.htm
13. Montesquieu Ch.-L. de. The spirit of the laws. – L.: G. Bell & Sons, 1914. – 286 p. – Mode of access: http://www.constitution.org/cm/sol.txt
14. Political economy of governance in the Euro-Mediterranean partnership // GO-EuroMed. – Mode of access: http://go-euromed.org/
15. Principality of Monaco // EU: External Action. – Mode of access: http://www.eeas.europa.eu/monaco/index_en.htm
16. Tourret J., Wallaert V. Activity 3–1: Analysis of Euro-Mediterranean governance framework: Towards an effective contribution of regional authorities to Euro-Mediterranean policies: Mediterranean governance report. – Marseille: Institut de la M'editerran'ee, 2010. – 63 p.
17. Worldwide governance indicators (WGI) project // Worldwide governance indicators. – Mode of access: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp
Деятельность
Аннотация. Работа «партийных фондов» ФРГ в южноевропейских странах еврозоны рассматривается на примере Греции.
Abstract. The activities of party funds of Germany in the southern European countries in the eurozone is seen on the example of Greece.