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Technical analysis is a statistical and mathematical analysis of previous quotes and a prognosis of coming prices. A number of technical indicators have been installed into the PRO-CHARTS trading system. Analyzing the indicators one can come to the conclusion about further movements of the quoted currencies.
Fundamental analysis is an analysis of current situations in the country of the currency, such as its economy, political events, and rumors. The country’s economy depends on the rate of inflation and unemployment, on the interest rate of its Central Bank, and on tax policy. Political stability also influences the exchange rate.
At the same time one should not consider fundamental analysis just as an analysis of the economic situation in the country itself. A far bigger role in the FOREX market belongs to the expectations of the market participants.
Various prognoses and bulletins, issued by the participants, have a strong influence on the expectations. Very often an effect of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy occurs when market players raise or lower the exchange rates according to the prognosis. But a deep and thorough fundamental analysis is available only for big banks with a staff of professional analysts and constant access to a wide field of information.
Reading a foreign exchange quote may seem a bit confusing at first. However, it’s really quite simple if you remember two things: 1) The currency listed first is the base currency and 2) the value of the base currency is always 1.
The USD is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the ‘base’ currency for quotes. In the
When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened. If the USD/JPY quote increases to 113.01, the dollar is stronger as it will now buy more yen than before.
The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as GBP/USD 1.7366, meaning that one British pound equals 1.7366 U.S. dollars. In these three currency pairs, a rising quote means a weakening dollar, as it now takes more U.S. dollars to equal one pound, Euro or Australian dollar.
Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same. For example, a quote of EUR/JPY 127.95 signifies that one Euro is equal to 127.95 Japanese yen.
When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a ‘bid’ and ‘offer’. The ‘bid’ is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The ‘ask’ is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).
Foreign exchange quotes are a relation between currencies.
USDJPY – the cost of $1 in Japanese yens.
EURUSD – the cost of Euro 1 in US dollars.
That is, quotes are expressed in the units of the second currency for a unit of the first one. For example, quote USDJPY 108,91 shows that $1 costs 108,91 Japanese yens. Quote EURUSD 0.9561 shows that 1 Euro costs 0.9561 US dollars.
The last figure in the quote is called
GBPUSD and EURUSD are direct quotes, i.e. when the chart goes up, GBP and EUR become more expensive, and when it goes down, the currencies become cheaper. USDCHF and USDJPY are backward quotes, and when the chart grows, prices on CHF and JPY fall, and when the chart goes down, the prices grow.
On direct quotes you buy according to ASK and sell according to BID. With backward quotes, you buy according to BID and sell according to ASK.
Participants of a Foreign Exchange Market
Commercial banksconduct the main volume of exchange transactions. Other participants of the market have their accounts at the banks, conducting necessary conversion transactions. Banks accumulate the combined needs of the market in exchange conversions as well as in calling and distributing money, breaking with it into new banks. Besides satisfying clients’ requests, banks can operate independently, using their own assets. A forex market is a market of interbank dealings, and one should bear in mind the existence of an interbank foreign exchange market. In international forex markets, international banks with the daily volume of transactions of billions dollars have the biggest influence. These are Barclays Bank, Citibank, Chase Manhattan Bank, Deutsche Bank, Swiss Bank Corporation, Union Bank of Switzerland, etc.
Exchange markets. Exchange markets do not work in a definite building and they do not have definite business hours. Thanks to the development of telecommunications most of the leading financial institutions of the world use services of exchange markets directly and via mediators 24 hours a day. The biggest international exchange markets are based in London, New York and Tokyo. In some transitional economies there are exchange markets for currency exchange by juristic persons and for forming a market exchange rate. The state usually regulates the exchange rate in an active manner, using the compactness of the exchange market.
Central banks control currency reserves, realize interventions, and regulate the interest rate in the national currency. The central bank of the U.S., the US Federal Reserve Bank, or «FED», has the greatest influence in the international exchange markets. It is followed by the central banks of Germany (the Deutsche Bundesbank or BUBA) and of Great Britain (the Bank of England, nicknamed the «Old Lady»).
Firms that conduct foreign trade transactions. Companies participating in international trade have a stable demand for foreign currency (importers) and supply (exporters). These organizations do not have direct access to exchange markets, and they conduct their conversion and deposit transactions via commercial banks.