Английский язык. Практический курс для решения бизнес-задач
Шрифт:
Гуляев считает, что рынок также подогрела статистика по росту потребительских цен в США за апрель, оказавшаяся лучше ожиданий: 0,2% против 0,3%. А Freddie Mac за I квартал показала убыток в $151 млн, т. е. существенно меньше прогнозов. В результате индекс ММВБ вырос на 3,5% до 1904,2 пункта, превысив уровень закрытия 2007 г., а индекс РТС вырос на 6,9% до очередного исторического максимума в 2406 пунктов.
Акции «Уралкалия» на ММВБ выросли на 3,4%, «Норникеля» – на 2,6%. Во втором эшелоне обыкновенные акции «Ленэнерго» подорожали на 12,5%, «Омскэнергосбыта» – на 11,2%, Волжской ТГК – на 10,6%. Тем не менее, по мнению начальника аналитического отдела компании «Атон» Андрея
По словам начальника управления конверсионных и межбанковских операций банка «Зенит» Александра Карпова, на международном рынке наблюдалась высокая волатильность курса доллара в диапазоне $1,54-1,55/евро, на российских же площадках доллар вырос с 23,81—23,82 руб./$ до 23,91 руб./$, т. е. превысил уровень поддержки ЦБ примерно на 0,12 руб. Как полагает Карпов, спекулянты, продававшие большие объемы долларов Центробанку в апреле, решили частично закрыть короткие позиции. Ставки по однодневным кредитам не превышали 4% годовых.
Источник: Ведомости, 15.05.08
Lesson 33
Valuation of Russian Companies
Read and translate the text and learn terms from the Essential Vocabulary.
Company Handbook
Figure 1. Renaissance Capital Stock Focus List
Recap of Stock/Sector Performance Year-to-Date
Driven by the ever growing domestic liquidity, the Russian stock market has risen strongly over the year, gaining 26%. The top performers in 2003, similar to in 2002, were second– or even third-tier stocks. The only two «blue chips» to feature in the top 20 best performing companies – Mosenergo and UES – almost doubled in value year-to-date (this is a stark reversal of the situation in 2002 when each of these stocks lost about 25%). 75% of the top 20 best performing stocks come from the utilities sector, implying that the game for control of the sector, which started in 2002, is still on.
Figure 2. The Best Performing Russian Stocks in 2003 Year-to-Date
The list of the worst performing stocks has 4 utilities firms in 2003, but otherwise it is a more diverse group and contains a number of larger companies. Beer stocks were clearly out of favor with investors, with SUN Interbrew falling almost 40%, and Baltika down 10%. Despite the strong rally in the telecoms sector as a whole, two stocks – Far East Telecom and North-West Telecom – lagged behind their peers.
Sector performance is something of a misnomer, as several are comprised of just one or two companies, while others include common and preferred shares, which often distort the overall picture. The banking sector (that is, Sberbank), which was the best performer in Russia in 2002, managed to clinch the second spot in 2003 year-to-date. The utilities sector, which was the only sector that finished down year-on-year in 2002, was the best performing one year-to-date, helped by hefty increases in UES and Mosenergo shares. At the other end of the spectrum were the airlines, and the retail and consumer stocks (led down by SUN Interbrew’s and Baltika’s poor performances).
Figure 3. The Worst Performing Russian Stocks in 2003 Year-to-Date
Finally, all top 20 stocks, except Baltika, have increased in value since the beginning of the year. UES moved up from the middle of the table at the beginning of 2003 to become the 5th largest stock. Following a strong rally in the telecom sector, 6 of the top 20 Russian stocks were telecom companies.
Figure 4. Performance of the Top Russian Stocks in 2003 Year-to-Date
On the Valuation of Russian Equities
Valuation represents only one side of the multilayered decision process behind choosing a stock. Other tangible and less tangible issues, such as, for example, the existence of the earnings momentum, sensitivity to newsflow, and the quality of management, play important roles behind the selection process. Such intangibles have traditionally held more weight in emerging market investment criteria than in developed ones, and continue to do so. This argument naturally pertains to Russia as well, and we argue that valuations can also incorporate intangible considerations.
The RTS is trading at a 2003 P/E of 6.8x, which albeit some 15% higher than at the beginning of the year, still compares favourably with other developing markets. We now take a look at sectors and individual stocks within the Russian investment universe.
The easiest multiple to use is EV/Sales. It is also the least useful of the multiples – the company may have an attractive multiple on a standalone basis, or on a growth-adjusted basis, but nothing would tell us if the company is actually profitable or if it is losing money. One way of avoiding this problem is to compare EV/Sales and Net Margin – clearly the companies with low multiples and high margins are attractive on this scale. Some of the automakers are trading at the lowest multiples, but many of them do not show growth and have low net income margins. Telecom stocks are trading on high multiples, but they are also expected to post the fastest growth and their profit margins are above 15%.
Admittedly, EV/EBITDA is also not the best multiple upon which to focus, taking no consideration, for example, of either taxes or capex. However, given ongoing differences in the reporting standards of Russian companies, EBITDA is frequently the line below which a lot of things go fuzzy. For instance, the Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) – still used by most companies, apart from blue chip stocks with ADRs – treat net income in a very different way from the U.S. GAAP and IAS. It is entirely normal to make social contributions, pay bonuses to employees, or divert funds elsewhere from whatever is called the net income under RAS, and hence RAS reported net income usually shrinks substantially when converted into GAAP figures.