Английский язык. Практический курс для решения бизнес-задач
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The EBITDA line tends to be less distorted by accounting differences and thus our first step is to focus on it. The average Russian 2003 EV/EBITDA has somewhat increased over the past 5 months and is now about 3.8x, as opposed to 3.2x in January. There are a number of companies, which trade at a substantial discount even to this already low number. However, in most cases, there is a good reason for this – either growth is not there, or the risks are too high. For instance, although many utilities companies are trading at or below 2x EV/EBITDA, the growth is on the low side, but the risks are on the high side. Retailer TsUM shows one of the most impressive growth profiles (37% CAGR in EBITDA), and is also trading at a discount to the average. However, TsUM’s 19%+ weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is substantially above the average, and we are uncertain about its long-term strategy.
PAZ, Wimm-Bill-Dann, Norilsk Nickel, and Baltika are the companies, which, in our view, look appealing on an EV/EBITDA valuation basis, factoring in growth.
TsUM also shows up well on the EV/CF valuation sheet, followed by PAZ. Valuations of Vympelkom, Wimm-Bill-Dann, and Volga Telecom also look quite attractive, once growth is factored in. Tatneft and Surgutneftegas are two of the cheaper stocks by this measure, but there is no growth in Tatneft, while Surgut is no longer trading on fundamentals.
The P/E valuation also highlights the automotive and utilities stocks, and Sberbank, as some of the more attractively valued shares. MTS, Vympelkom, and Wimm-Bill-Dann also look good on growth adjusted measures, albeit that they are trading above the average of 6.8x.
The return on capital employed (ROCE) valuation, which, at least in theory, incorporates all cash items – including taxes, company indebtedness, and capital expenditure – highlights that most of the companies which have positive returns over their WACC have already traded up. Examples are easy to find – YUKOS, Baltika, MTS, Vympelkom, and Sibneft.
The companies which do have a positive spread of ROIC over WACC are LUKOIL, and Zavolzhskiy Motors, and, to a lesser degree, Mosenergo and Norilsk Nickel. While Zavolzhskiy Motors is forecast to keep its ROIC above WACC for the next two years, LUKOIL’s economic returns are forecast to deteriorate in 2004, while those of Norilsk Nickel are expected to improve.
The International Perspective
While looking at the valuations of Russian companies internationally, it has to be borne in mind that while Russian company share prices have been going mostly up, their risk profile has been coming down, allowing more room for price appreciation. After all, valuations are meaningless before they have been compared to growth rates and risks, as measured by WACC.
The single largest change to the WACCs of Russian companies came from the significant reduction in the country risk, as measured by the basket of Eurobonds. The yields of Russian Eurobonds, both sovereign and corporate, have seen a considerable decline in the last 12 months, on average by a 3—3.5 percentage points. To a large degree, however, this is attributable to a significant decline in US dollar yields – the tightening in EMBI spreads was far less steep than the decline in yields. Also, Russian debt yields have been declining in line with peers, as emerging market debt has performed quite well in the low interest rate and low economic growth environment.
However, there are also some Russia-specific factors behind the great performance of Russian debt over the past several months. These include a significant current account surplus, forex reserves nudging the $60 billion mark, a state budget surplus, a growing economy, significantly improved political stability, and some hesitant progress in structural reforms. This is all in sharp contrast with 1997—1998, when the decline in yields was driven by foreign
As an example of corporate bonds, the yields of MTS and Vympelkom dollar debt instruments have also declined in the past year. It should be noted, though, that Vympelkom has closed the gap with MTS in terms of the cost of debt, which is due both to an improvement in Vympelkom’s financial results and MTS’ increasing leverage. MTS’ Eurobonds maturing in 2008 now probably serve as the best proxy for the cost of debt for both companies, which we would see in the tight area of around 8%.
Despite the decreasing macro risks, we do not think that there have been many changes, which would allow us to consider Russian equity as any less risky than we did previously. Legislation has not changed much, the corporate governance risks remain the same, the dealings in shares of UES and Surgutneftegas over the past six months have proved that the market remains an «insider’s» place, and the overall breadth of the market – if anything – has worsened. Thus, we do not see any reasons to decrease our six percentage point equity risk premium.
Source: Alexander Kazbegi, Renaissance Capital, Company Handbook, 2003 (excerpt).
Essential Vocabulary
1. recap (recapitulation) – краткое повторение, суммирование
2. year-to-date (YTD) – с начала года до настоящего момента
3. second (third)-tier company – компания второго (третьего) эшелона
4. blue chip – голубая фишка
5. year-on-year (YoY) – в годовом исчислении или в течение года
6. investment universe n – инвестиционная вселенная
7. enterprise value (EV) – ценность предприятия
8. EV/Sales – отношение ценности предприятия к продажам
9. net margin – чистая маржа
10. Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) – прибыль до уплаты процентов, налогов, амортизации материальных и нематериальных активов
11. EV/EBITDA – отношение ценности предприятия к EBITDA
12. Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) – российские стандарты бухучета (РСБУ)
13. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) – общепринятые стандарты бухгалтерского учета
14. International Accounting Standards (IAS) – международные стандарты финансовой отчетности (МСФО)
15. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) – кумулятивный годовой темп роста