Английский язык. Практический курс для решения бизнес-задач
Шрифт:
Another stimulus to the long-term economic performance of emerging markets is greater recognition of free, open, transparent markets in promoting economic growth. Despite the noisy protests of «anti-globalization» groups at recent multinational meetings, there is a growing consensus that economic development promotes personal freedom. Greater acceptance of the linkage between economic development, free markets and individual freedom is likely to increase over time, stimulating growth in emerging capital markets.
Leading economists with influence on emerging markets policymakers have been arguing that free markets solve problems most effectively. They show the importance of three key characteristics for growing economies – openness, macro stability and small government. Wider acceptance of these views can be expected to promote long-term, stable growth.
Evidence that this is already occurring can be seen in Asia. Asian companies and policymakers demonstrate a clear movement away from the old economic model that prevailed prior to the 1997-98 financial crisis towards a more open, market-driven system. The old model was one in which the consumer saved actively, banks lent carelessly, and borrowing corporations over-invested with poor returns. While creating the illusion of steady growth, this model was in fact unsustainable.
While the degree of progress towards a new Asian economic model varies from country to country, our observations confirm a general shift towards a framework where consumers spend more and borrow more. Lending institutions in turn have tighter lending standards, putting corporations into competition for capital and necessitating higher returns on investment. This new paradigm offers the prospect of more sustainable growth and higher valuations for investors.
5. Assessing the Long-Term Fundamental Case
The fundamental case for emerging markets investment remains sound. The two decades since these countries first made forays into the capital markets are only a short period in world economic development and a fleeting moment in history. Yet during this period emerging markets have come a long way in establishing sound fiscal and monetary policies, restructuring their economies, addressing corporate governance, and improving their economic fundamentals. Keeping this in mind, the potential for continued rapid, positive change in these economies and markets is still very strong.
Long-term fundamental positives for the emerging markets include:
– Large, rapidly industrializing populations
– Undervalued currencies
– Declining current account deficits
– Improving infrastructures
– Competitive wages
– Increased competition, reform and restructuring
– High savings rates
– Long-term propensity toward growth
Of course, emerging markets vary a great deal in their political realities, their cultural and national identities, and their legal and economic institutions. Many emerging market populations are still in poverty and lack the basic means for development. Great attention needs to be paid to understanding the multifaceted nature of these countries. In short, investment in these markets remains challenging. However, we believe that with use of a wide array of information and skilled application of disciplined analytical tools, it is possible to avoid troubled areas and selectively invest in high-return countries and companies.
6. Conclusion
We think investors should look past the current market anxiety and make a careful and objective appraisal of the present opportunities in the emerging markets. We believe this asset class will serve investors extremely well in the long term, and that the current valuations and outlook justify an increase now in emerging markets allocations for global fund sponsors. The current uncertainty, while uncomfortable in the near term, provides a classic long-term buying opportunity.
Source: Ronald Frashure, Charles Wang of Acadian Asset Management, 2003. www.oycf.org
Essential Vocabulary
1. magnitude n –
2. World Bank – Мировой банк
3. International Finance Corporation (IFC) – Международная финансовая корпорация (МФК)
4. Gross National Product (GNP) – валовой национальный продукт (ВНП)
5. per capita – на душу населения
6. devaluation n – девальвация, обесценение
devalue v – обесценивать
7. contagion n – заражение (риск распространение финансового кризиса из одной страны в другую или риск того, что проблемы дочерних компаний перекинутся на материнскую)
8. default n – дефолт, невыполнение денежных обязательств, неплатеж, отказ от уплаты долга
defaulter n – сторона, не выполняющая обязательства, неплательщик, банкрот
default v – объявлять дефолт
9. systemic risk – системный риск
10. bull market – рынок «быков»
11. S&P 500 index – индекс 500 акций «Стэндард-энд-Пурс»
12. bubble n – пузырь (ситуация, когда конъюнктура поднимается до уровня, не имеющего объективной основы)
13.outlook n – вид, перспектива, вид на будущее, прогноз
14. downturn n – начало спада деловой активности или спада на рынке
15. risk premium – премия за риск
16. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) – Международные индексы капитала банка «Морган Стэнли»
17. pivot n – основа, опора
pivotal a – основной, опорный